Reform voters more likely to live in areas with health problems, study suggests

People living in areas with poorer health outcomes are more likely to vote for Reform UK, new analysis has suggested.

Experts at Imperial College London looked at voting data from the 2024 general election, when Nigel Farage’s party won five seats in England, and found that three of the five constituencies (60 per cent) returning a Reform MP were in the most deprived fifth of the country, compared with 103 (29.7 per cent) of Labour constituencies.

The study, published in BMJ Open Respiratory Research, found that the strongest links between voting for Mr Farage’s party and conditions in constituencies were for obesity, COPD and epilepsy.

Reform-voting areas had the highest proportion of people aged over 65, and people were more likely to suffer from 15 out of 20 health conditions compared to other regions.

The illnesses included asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease, coronary heart disease, dementia, depression, diabetes, learning disabilities, arthritis and obesity.

The researchers said that the main finding of their analysis was “an association between poor health metrics at a constituency level and votes for Reform UK”, and that the results are consistent with data from the US that shows “a relationship between poor healthcare measures and Republican voting”.

They said that the analysis should show Reform policy makers “there are profound health issues in their constituencies which should be addressed”.

They also pointed to the period of austerity in the UK, “aggravated” by the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, which they said had had contributed to “the fact that many people with long-term lung conditions are missing out on basic aspects of care, which may fuel frustration with the status quo”.

Three of the five areas that elected Reform MPs in summer 2024 were coastal: Great Yarmouth, Clacton and Boston and Skegness. The researchers highlighted a previous report which indicated that coastal areas are known to have older populations with long term conditions.

The Independent has contacted Reform UK for comment.

A spokeswoman for the Department of Health and Social Care said: “This government has put the NHS on the road to recovery after more than a decade of decline.

“We’ve delivered five million extra appointments, cut waiting lists by over 200,000 and recruited 2,000 more GPs.

“As well as the extra £26 billion we are investing this year, we are modernising the health service so patients have much more control over their healthcare, including by introducing online booking for GP appointments this month.”