Could mortgage interest rates fall before the Fed's October meeting?

Mortgage interest rates could tumble downward again soon, even before the Fed's October meeting. Andrii Yalanskyi/Getty Images

For homebuyers and current owners looking to refinance, October 29 can't come fast enough.

That's when the Federal Reserve is set to conclude its next two-day meeting and, with it, issue another widely anticipated cut to the federal funds rate. Currently at a range between 4.00% to 4.25%, a cut at the end of the month would bring that range down another 25 basis points. And it's looking more and more like a certainty, with the CME Group's FedWatch tool listing a cut of that size then at a 99% likelihood, as of October 17.

While the Fed's actions don't directly dictate the mortgage purchase and refinance rates lenders offer, they do go a long way toward influencing them. So, another cut there can offer further relief for buyers and those owners saddled with higher interest rates on their current mortgage loans.

But could mortgage interest rates fall even before the Fed's October meeting? While predicting the future rate movement of any borrowing product with precision is inherently difficult, there's a case to be made for lower mortgage rates before October 29. Below, we'll explain why.

Start by seeing how low your current mortgage rate offers are here.

Could mortgage interest rates fall before the Fed's October meeting?

When attempting to answer this question, it's important to remember that the Fed is just one factor impacting mortgage rates (the 10-year Treasury yield is another major one). So, multiple factors can drive rates higher or lower now, perhaps before October 29. That being said, there's a strong possibility that rates could fall before then, perhaps as soon as the next few days.

A look back at recent mortgage rate history supports this theory. In September 2024, for example, mortgage interest rates plunged to their lowest level in two years (at that point), right before the Fed issued a larger-than-anticipated 50 basis-point rate cut (not after it). And that dynamic was repeated this fall as mortgage rates temporarily declined to a three-year low in September, again right before the Fed issued its first rate cut of 2025. In other words, mortgage rate drops don't line up as neatly alongside Fed rate cuts as it may seem on the surface. So mortgage rates can and potentially will fall again before the Fed's press conference announcing its rate policy at the end of the month.

It's also critical to remember that lenders don't need to wait to begin reducing the offers they provide to borrowers. Lenders will often "price in" these cuts before they're officially announced. That's why borrowers frequently see little difference between the mortgage rates that are listed online the morning of a Fed announcement day and in the days that follow. The inevitability has already been accounted for, and this is unlikely to change this month. 

There's a good chance, then, if not a guarantee, that rates will fall before October 29, when the Fed meets again. But there's no guarantee that they'll stay that low permanently, either, as rates here increased in the weeks after the Fed's September 2024 and September 2025 cuts. Be prepared, then, to take advantage of this timely opportunity when it presents itself again.

Compare your current mortgage rate offers and lenders here now.

How to prepare for the next mortgage rate drop

Want to take advantage of a timely and affordable mortgage rate? Fortunately, the advice here remains timeless and widely applicable. Specifically, borrowers should do all they can to boost their credit score as high as possible. The lowest rates always go to those with the best credit profiles, so start by checking your credit report for errors or inaccuracies, clear those and start paying down your debt immediately to improve your score.

Shopping around for lenders can also lead to significant savings, even if you're not quite ready to formally apply for a loan. By familiarizing yourself with what lenders are offering, you can narrow down your search and be one step closer to applying with the most affordable one once you have a house you're ready to make an offer on.

And remember to monitor the mortgage rate climate daily. As clearly outlined above, mortgage rates don't always move in a neat and predictable fashion. Opportunities may arise and disappear in just the same business day. So be proactive, monitor the news cycle and Fed's actions (or lack thereof), and have the documentation your lender may need ready to go so you can lock in a new, low mortgage rate when it surfaces.

The bottom line

Mortgage interest rates are moving in an encouraging direction again, and they may continue to move that way even before the Fed's next meeting. While there's no certainty in this climate, recent history indicates that mortgage rates could fall before October 29, opening up a new (limited) window of opportunity in which borrowers can take advantage. If you're one of them, start preparing your application right now. You may be submitting it sooner than you anticipated.

Edited by Angelica Leicht